Return to David's theory of evolution (Evolution)

by dhw, Thursday, February 01, 2024, 08:45 (294 days ago) @ David Turell

99.9% versus 0.1%

dhw: You have agreed that the 99.9% of extinct species were NOT the ancestors of the current 0.1% of survivors.

DAVID: I have not agreed with the bold. 99.9% ARE the ancestors of the 0.1% surviving. Except for the Cambrians and the insectivores noted by Bechly, everything alive today can trace its origin back twig by twig through 99.9% extinct, per Raup. (dhw's bold)

dhw: You continue to conflate two separate statistics. 1) Yes, 99.9% of the ancestors of each current species are extinct. 2) No, 99.9% of all the species that ever lived were NOT the ancestors of current species. The example you yourself offered us was: “Dinosaurs are 100% dead. They might be the ancestors of birds but that is disputed now.” If they were not the ancestors of birds, then 100% of dinosaurs were NOT the ancestors of today’s species. And even if some dinosaurs were the ancestors of birds, you are still left with all the other dinosaurs that were not. You have confirmed 1) with your next comment:

DAVID: Birds come from one branch of dinosaurs and are part of the 0.1% here now. "everything alive today can trace its origin back twig by twig through 99.9% extinct, per Raup."

Apparently there is some dispute even over birds, but that doesn’t matter. You keep repeating my 1) above, which is true. And you keep conflating it with 2) which is your claim that 99.9% of all extinct species were the direct ancestors of today’s species.

DAVID: Yes, birds from some branch of dinosaurs, which percentage I don't know.

dhw: As above. You wrote that even the bird theory was disputed now (= 100% were NOT the ancestors of current species). Here (“from some branch” – singular) you have confirmed the obvious fact that at the very least, the vast majority of dinosaurs were NOT the ancestors of current species.

DAVID: Agreed. They are part of the 99.9% culled.

And according to your own statements, the same applies to all extinct species: 99.9% of them were NOT the ancestors of current species.

DAVID: Again, each species here today came from as long line of ancestors in the past. Based on Raup's statistics I assume each line had 99.9% loss/culling with 0.1% survival. The cumulative 99.9% came from each 0.1% line living.

Correct. That is statistic No. 1). And you have now agreed that the 99.9% of extinct species were NOT the ancestors of the current 0.1% of survivors.

DAVID: Raup considered extinctions bad luck, which means to me God planned for their extinctions by creating new challenges they could not handle, thus culling.

dhw: You wrote that “species were not culled out”. Thank you for now confirming your view that species were culled out. I don’t know why you are quoting Raup, since you obviously disagree. If your God planned a way of culling them, you are once more left with the absurd theory that he deliberately designed them, knowing they were irrelevant to his purpose, and then cleverly worked out a way of culling them.

DAVID: I quote Raup, and everything about his book you have learned from me!

Correct. And if Raup says extinction/survival was a matter of luck, and you say no, it was all planned by your God, then you are teaching me that you disagree with Raup.

dhw: Summary: 99.9% of the ancestors of current species are extinct. Only 0.1% of all extinct species were the ancestors of current species. You believe current species, with humans in charge, were your God’s one and only goal, and you have no idea why he would have specially created and culled the 99.9% of extinct species that had no connection with his one and only goal.

DAVID: Stop your repetition of a falsehood. All are connected to humans, since we run the Earth and used all of it. All living forms now are here because God put them here for us.

What falsehood? Are you still maintaining that we and our contemporary species are directly descended from 99.9% of extinct species? That every past and present species was/is “connected” to humans, although 99.9% of past species aren’t even here? Please explain which part of my summary is a “falsehood”.