Theoretical origin of life; Koonen's odds against (Introduction)

by David Turell , Monday, February 23, 2015, 15:44 (3561 days ago) @ George Jelliss

George: look back to see Koonen&apos;s odds from the entry two days ago: Saturday, February 21, 2015, 15:06 -&quot;at least one RNA encoding a replicase, ~500 nucleotides (low bound)is required. In the above notation, n = 1800, resulting in E <10-1018-&quot;In other words, even in this toy model that assumes a deliberately inflated rate of RNA production, the probability that a coupled translation-replication emerges by chance in a single O-region is P ^ 10-1018. Obviously, this version of the breakthrough stage can be considered only in the context of a universe with an infinite (or, in the very least, extremely vast) number of O-regions. -&quot;The model considered here is not supposed to be realistic by any account. It only serves to illustrate the difference in the demands on chance for the origin of different versions of the breakthrough system (see Fig. 1) and hence the connections between these versions and different cosmological models of the universe.&quot; -http://www.biologydirect.com/content/2/1/15