Theoretical origin of life; Koonen's odds against (Introduction)

by dhw, Saturday, February 21, 2015, 18:01 (3563 days ago) @ David Turell

DAVID: QUOTE: &quot;...at least one RNA encoding a replicase, ~500 nucleotides (low bound)is required. In the above notation, n = 1800, resulting in E <10-1018&#13;&#10;&quot;In other words, even in this toy model that assumes a deliberately inflated rate of RNA production, the probability that a coupled translation-replication emerges by chance in a single O-region is P ^ 10-1018. Obviously, this version of the breakthrough stage can be considered only in the context of a universe with an infinite (or, in the very least, extremely vast) number of O-regions. &#13;&#10;&quot;The model considered here is not supposed to be realistic by any account. It only serves to illustrate the difference in the demands on chance for the origin of different versions of the breakthrough system (see Fig. 1) and hence the connections between these versions and different cosmological models of the universe.&quot; -http://www.biologydirect.com/content/2/1/15-Eugene Koonen is a highly respected scientist. He obviously put this in the appendix as a back-of-the-cuff estimate.-And I assume you have quoted it as evidence against chance. From my position on the fence, I accept the reasonableness of your argument. However, unless I have badly misunderstood his article, this highly respected scientist appears to adopt the opposite view to yours:-QUOTE: &#147;Recent developments in cosmology radically change the conception of the universe as well as the very notions of &quot;probable&quot; and &quot;possible&quot;. The model of eternal inflation implies that all macroscopic histories permitted by laws of physics are repeated an infinite number of times in the infinite multiverse. In contrast to the traditional cosmological models of a single, finite universe, this worldview provides for the origin of an infinite number of complex systems by chance, even as the probability of complexity emerging in any given region of the multiverse is extremely low. This change in perspective has profound implications for the history of any phenomenon, and life on earth cannot be an exception.&#148;&#13;&#10; &#13;&#10;CONCLUSION: &#147;The plausibility of different models for the origin of life on earth directly depends on the adopted cosmological scenario. In an infinite universe (multiverse), emergence of highly complex systems by chance is inevitable. Therefore, under this cosmology, an entity as complex as a coupled translation-replication system should be considered a viable breakthrough stage for the onset of biological evolution.&#148;&#13;&#10; &#13;&#10;Quote: &#147;A final comment on &quot;irreducible complexity&quot; and &quot;intelligent design&quot;. By showing that highly complex systems, actually, can emerge by chance and, moreover, are inevitable, if extremely rare, in the universe, the present model sidesteps the issue of irreducibility and leaves no room whatsoever for any form of intelligent design.&#148; -NB He does not see the multiverse as a necessary requirement, but only an infinite universe. Add eternal (he does talk of eternal inflation) and we have the same argument that you and I have been discussing: infinity and eternity make anything possible.