Theoretical origin of life; Koonen's odds against (Introduction)

by David Turell , Saturday, February 21, 2015, 15:06 (3563 days ago) @ David Turell

&quot;at least one RNA encoding a replicase, ~500 nucleotides (low bound)is required. In the above notation, n = 1800, resulting in E <10-1018-&quot;In other words, even in this toy model that assumes a deliberately inflated rate of RNA production, the probability that a coupled translation-replication emerges by chance in a single O-region is P ^ 10-1018. Obviously, this version of the breakthrough stage can be considered only in the context of a universe with an infinite (or, in the very least, extremely vast) number of O-regions. -&quot;The model considered here is not supposed to be realistic by any account. It only serves to illustrate the difference in the demands on chance for the origin of different versions of the breakthrough system (see Fig. 1) and hence the connections between these versions and different cosmological models of the universe.&quot; -http://www.biologydirect.com/content/2/1/15-Eugene Koonen is a highly respected scientist. He obviously put this in the appendix as a back-of-the-cuff estimate.