Far out cosmology: the danger of solar flairs (Introduction)

by David Turell , Saturday, December 03, 2022, 22:18 (502 days ago) @ David Turell

There have been bad ones:

https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/vulnerable-solar-flare/?utm_source=mailchimp&am...

"In 1859, the most powerful geomagnetic storm ever recorded occurred on Earth: triggered by a powerful solar flare that occurred ~17 hours prior. Although no biological creatures were directly harmed, all sorts of electrified devices, including power lines and telegraph wires, experienced surges and caught fire. A similar flare, today, would be a multi-trillion dollar disaster, and could lead to millions of deaths due to lack of heat, power, and food/water. But that's not even the worst-case scenario.

***

“'How concerned should I be for another Carrington-magnitude event?”

"On a daily basis, there are worse things to worry about. But over the coming years and decades, not only is a direct hit from a catastrophic space weather event inevitable, but a Carrington-like event isn’t even the worst case scenario. Here’s what everyone should know.

***

"Solar flares and coronal mass ejections consist of fast-moving charged particles from the sun: largely protons and other atomic nuclei. Normally, the sun emits a constant stream of these particles, known as the solar wind. However, these space weather events — in the form of solar flares and coronal mass ejections — can not only greatly enhance the density of charged particles that get sent out from the Sun, but their speed and energy as well. They typically occur close to equatorial latitudes, which means they’re at risk of intercepting the Earth. The Sun makes a full rotation every 25 days at its equator, while Earth orbits the Sun every ~365 days. When a flare or ejection is aligned with Earth, our planet is at risk.

"Given that we now have Sun-monitoring satellites and observatories, they’re our first line of defense: to alert us when a space weather event is potentially threatening to us. That occurs when a flare points directly at us, or when a coronal mass ejection appears “annular,” meaning that we only see a spherical halo of an event that’s potentially directed right at us.

***

"In fact, we’re only in trouble if three things all occur at once:

"The space weather events that occur need to have the proper magnetic alignment with respect to our own planet to penetrate our magnetosphere. If the alignment is off, Earth’s magnetic field will harmlessly deflect the majority of particles away, leaving the remainder to do nothing more than create a mostly harmless auroral display. This alignment occurs rarely, and can now be measured with the NSF’s Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope.

"Typical solar flares occur only at the Sun’s photosphere, but ones that interact with the solar corona — often connected by a solar prominence — can cause a coronal mass ejection. If a coronal mass ejection is directed right at Earth, and the particles are moving rapidly, that’s what puts Earth in the greatest amount of peril.

"There needs to be a large amount of electrical infrastructure in place, particularly large-area loops and coils of wire. Back in 1859, electricity was still relatively novel and rare; today, it’s a ubiquitous part of our global infrastructure. As our power grids become more interconnected and far-reaching, our infrastructure faces greater and greater threats from these space weather events.

***

"But today, with the massive amounts of electricity-based infrastructure that now covers our planet, the danger is very, very real.

"The problem comes from having long wires, loops and coils of wires, transformers, and similar electric/electronic infrastructure that current flows through. Whenever current flows, it creates a magnetic field; whenever the magnetic field through a loop or coil (or around a wire) changes, it can similarly induce an electric current. That’s where the danger comes in: the space weather events strike Earth, impact and alter our planet’s magnetic field at its surface, which causes the magnetic field to change in this electric/electronic infrastructure, causing charge to flow and inducing an electric current. Importantly, this occurs even if: there’s no battery, no voltage source, and even if the electronic devices are unplugged entirely.

"That’s what makes space weather so dangerous to us here on Earth: not that it poses a direct threat to humans, but that it can cause enormous amounts of electrical current to flow through the wires connecting our infrastructure. This can lead to:

" electrical shorts, fires, explosions, blackouts and power outages, a loss of communications infrastructure, and many other damages that will result as downstream consequences of this disruption. Consumer electronics aren’t a major problem; if you knew a solar storm was coming and you unplugged everything in your home, most of your devices would be safe. The major issue is with the infrastructure set up for large-scale production and transmission of power; there will be uncontrollable surges that will knock out power stations and substations and pump far too much current into cities and buildings."

Comment: you can imagine the damage he describes. The Carrington was over 156 years ago. dhw who will comment, about a 'bad' God who designed and allowed this problem. My response is easy. There is life here, and probably nowhere else. What is here and now was required to be here to allow life to arrive.