Human evolution: current and expected population (Introduction)

by David Turell , Thursday, October 20, 2022, 19:13 (765 days ago) @ David Turell

Groth is slowing:

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/8-billion-people/?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium...

:At or around November 15th, humanity will add its eight billionth member. That sounds alarming, but fertility rates have been dropping since the 1960s. China and India, both 1.4 billion now, could shrink to 500 million and 1 billion, respectively. From the perspective of planetary biomass, humans make up a tiny 0.01%.

"Humanity is hardly an exclusive club. No secret handshake required. On November 15th, the United Nations predicts that we’ll be adding our eight billionth (living) member.

"This is an alarming milestone to some, not just because of the number’s sheer magnitude — imagine London’s 90,000-seater Wembley Stadium, squared — but also due to the breakneck speed at which we’ve reached it. After all, it took us all of human history up to 1804 to reach our first billion. And then we needed just 123 years to get to the second one.

"That was in 1927. Less than a century on, that figure has now quadrupled. But population growth is no runaway train. The global fertility rate has been dropping since 1964, down from 5 births per woman to just under 2.5 today.

"As a result, the speed of population growth has already plateaued. Since 1960 — when we achieved our third billion — we’ve added billions at a stable interval, of about one every 12 to 14 years. The UN Population Division projects that those intervals will get longer again after billion number eight, and humanity will hit its peak — numerically speaking at least — by the end of the century, at just under 11 billion.

"The ensuing population crunch will of course cause a bunch of worries and problems of its own. Yet knowing that the curve will eventually tilt downward is a welcome bit of good news. It marks a refreshing change from other, more intractable threats to our continued existence, like climate change, nuclear proliferation, and resource depletion.

"All of this serves as a long-winded introduction to a remarkable realization: Instead of preludes to disaster, maps like these may become objects of future curiosity. A century or two from now, our successors, inhabiting a less crowded planet, may study them and marvel, “Look how many we once were!”

Comment: the remainder of the article covers pie maps of where we all are by geographic areas. Eleven billion and then decline is an interesting concept. All depends on birth rate couples decide upon. The is the 'humans plus food' dhw rales about.