BELIEF is not complicated. (Introduction)

by Cary Cook , Sunday, June 01, 2008, 03:31 (6018 days ago) @ Cary Cook

Your excellent input has provoked me to revise my belief essay.
http://www.sanityquestpublishing.com/essays/belief.html - Notably these major changes:
JUDGMENT OF PROBABILITY is an involuntary act.
It happens in the mind without conscious effort or choice as soon as evidence and logic make a conclusion appear probable(more than 50% likely). We judge evidence and automatically believe(1) whatever appears probable at that time. Of course, deliberate cogitation may change our minds from that we first believed(1). And new evidence may change our minds. But at any point in time, we judge probability based on the evidence we have seen, and logic we have figured out at that time. We cannot willfully choose to believe(1) otherwise. Anyone who claims to believe(1) something which he considers improbable is either confused or lying, possibly to himself. - Plus a caveat at the end:
However, two factors may possibly complicate the issue ... the combination of emotion and irrationality. If a person is irrational enough, he may try to believe(1) what he wants to believe(1) despite perceived evidence to the contrary. And for all I know, he might succeed. Actual self-deception may be possible.