The issue of chance... (Evolution)

by David Turell , Monday, June 01, 2009, 23:42 (5452 days ago) @ Matt S.

Mr. Turell,
> I think that what you say probability-wise isn't true when you consider that in the primordial soup, for arguably a billion years several hundred trillion molecules were washing around, in ambient conditions suitable for biological reactions. 
 
> Looking at the ratio of molecules to the amount of time on the clock (and I'm being conservative on the 1Bn year statement) it is fully plausible that we came about by chance, - You've got some problems in your reasoning. First of all the Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, and for about 500 million years there was steady bombardment from meteorites and perhaps asteroids, keeping the Earth too hot for life. Life appeared without doubt 3.6 billion years ago and there is substantial evidence for 3.8 billion years ago. So there was only 2-400 million years for your primoridial soup to stir. Further I have not seen your explanation for inorganic to organic, which is not so easy as I have explained just recently. Also I have referred recently to Dr. Robert Shapiro, retired Prof. Emeritus in Biology from NYU, whose book, 'Origins: A Skeptic's Guide tothe Origin of Life on Earth", 1986, outlines all the probems in origin-of-life theories, and he is a devout Darwinian, who is sure one day the research will be successful. He also had a recent article in Scientific Am. in 2007 in which he discussed starting with an inorganic energy-producing cycle, which, in his expert opinion, is a more plausible first step than anything else so far proposed. You may play all the statistical games you wish, but that doesn't get around the chemical problems.