Probabilities (General)

by David Turell , Saturday, April 19, 2014, 16:26 (3869 days ago) @ romansh


> Romansh: I am not specifically worried about the medical profession not knowing probabilities.
> 
> But now you come to mention it ... what is the false positive rate for your Baylor Med School prof's test, and what is the incidence of C-1 esterase inhibitor deficiency in the group that displays the symptoms?
> 
> And this phrase here ... who could run the single test to prove the point which he did. worries me. Science is not in the proof business. There is always a degree of uncertainty in science. I hope the medical profession displays some uncertainty too.-You philosophize too much. The professor's test was a measurement of a protein enzyme in blood. There is no false positive. The mechanism of the test and its abililty to achieve an accurate result had been proven. Medicine is in the proof business when trying to establish a diagnosis for a dramatically ill patient. And finally the difference in my outlook and yours is that I know medicine is an art with applied science, not a science in itself. Which I think yhou actually recognize. Mainly deductive reasoning.