Probabilities (General)

by David Turell , Friday, April 18, 2014, 20:04 (3870 days ago) @ romansh


> 
> Romansh:People in general (and most doctor's apparently) didn't know now to interpret the probability data presented.
> 
> I suspect that just about every test a doctor might ask for has a false positive rate associated with it. It might be vanishing small or significant.
> Anyway it is not point to denigrate the medical profession in any way. I put my life in their hands quite often.
> 
> My central point remains people are not always good at handling probabilities.-No, we were taught there were false positives and false negatives, but as I've tried to point out, there are alternate ways to come to a diagnosis that cover each other and this problem. You are quite correct that probability is not well understood. Many improbable events happen every day in my life, and I know that. I see them. But if specificity is involved in the event, then the improbabilities disappear.