The Agnostic’s Exit Strategy (Agnosticism)

by dhw, Sunday, June 29, 2008, 12:15 (5990 days ago) @ Cary Cook

I asked Cary if a weather forecast giving a 51% chance of rain meant it would probably rain and therefore he believed it would rain. He confirmed that it did. George has given a much more constructive analysis of what I see as a flaw in Cary's categories of probability, though I would like to propose a tiny adjustment to his table: - 0% = false 
1-20% = almost certainly false
21-40% = probably false
41-60% = undecidable
61-80% = probably true
81-99% = almost certainly true
100% = true - My thanks to George for his much appreciated posting. - Cary says that "things we can figure out and know are more valuable than things we can only speculate about. If you don't already know that, I'm obviously wasting my time. I'm done." - I'm reluctant to let you have the last word on this, and would suggest that discussions on how life and the universe came into being, the question and nature of God's existence, the question and nature of an afterlife, the basis of moral codes etc. are at least as valuable as figuring out percentages of possibility/probability and definitions of "belief". However, I'm truly sorry to have exhausted your patience, and hope that "I'm done" refers to this particular thread and not to the website in general. If it's the latter, I can only hope we shall meet in the just afterlife you're betting on, though I suspect I shan't make it.