The Agnostic’s Exit Strategy (Agnosticism)

by dhw, Tuesday, June 24, 2008, 15:13 (5782 days ago) @ Cary Cook

Cary: "I like you, DHW, but I don't see how we can be of any further use to each other if we can't agree on something as basic as belief." - I like you too, Cary, and am quite shocked by your ultimatum. I would say that we are somewhere around 80% in agreement on most areas of the subject, but where all of us can be of use to each other is precisely in those areas where we disagree. One learns nothing from agreement. - There is a clash between us on what does and doesn't constitute belief. You have tried to explain your definition, and I have tried to explain why I'm not happy with it. If you won't talk to me any more unless I accept your definition, I shall sadly have to accept a parting of the ways, but I would much prefer to continue the dialogue in the hope of clarification. - Specifically, I say: "I don't know which of the alternatives [God/no God] is true, and so I cannot believe either", to which you reply: "This is totally erroneous by either definition of belief." For you, belief comes into play if there is more than 50% and less than 100% likelihood. As an example, you offer this: "You don't know that you will pick an ace out of a deck of 52 cards, but you necessarily believe1 that you won't." As you only have a 1 in 13 chance of picking an ace, I'd say the degree of improbability is such that you have every right to be convinced. The example I gave, though, was nowhere near as clear-cut: the weather forecast is a 51% chance of rain. Would you then actually say to people (without going into definitions) that you believe it's going to rain? My problem is that I can't pin belief down to a particular degree of likelihood (51% plus), but I can't give you the figure at which possibility or even probability might turn into conviction. - However, I'm happy to compromise and say: OK, the odds for and against the existence of God are precisely 50/50, and for that reason I can't choose between the options. Will that enable us to stay on speaking terms?