dhw's obsession with 'humans plus food'; current studies (Introduction)

by David Turell @, Friday, June 23, 2023, 17:57 (335 days ago) @ David Turell

More bad news:


"Across the world, rainforests are becoming savanna or farmland, savanna is drying out and turning into desert, and icy tundra is thawing.

"Indeed, scientific studies have now recorded "regime shifts" like these in more than 20 different types of ecosystems where tipping points have been passed. Across the world, more than 20 percent of ecosystems are in danger of shifting or collapsing into something different.


"This means an ecosystem collapse that we might previously have expected to avoid until late this century could happen as soon as in the next few decades. That's the gloomy conclusion of our latest research, published in Nature Sustainability.


"...one collapsing ecosystem could have a knock-on effect on neighboring ecosystems through successive feedback loops: an "ecological doom-loop" scenario, with catastrophic consequences.


"The key characteristic of each model is the presence of feedback mechanisms, which help to keep the system balanced and stable when stresses are sufficiently weak to be absorbed. For example, fishers on Lake Chilika tend to prefer catching adult fish while the fish stock is abundant. So long as enough adults are left to breed, this can be stable.

"However, when stresses can no longer be absorbed, the ecosystem abruptly passes a point of no return – the tipping point – and collapses. In Chilika, this might occur when fishers increase the catch of juvenile fish during shortages, which further undermines the renewal of the fish stock.

"We used the software to model more than 70,000 different simulations. Across all four models, the combinations of stress and extreme events brought forward the date of a predicted tipping point by between 30 percent and 80 percent.


"...even if we believe we are managing ecosystems sustainably by keeping the main stress levels constant – for example, by regulating fish catches – we had better keep an eye out for new stresses and extreme events.


"...We found the speed at which stress is applied is vital to understanding system collapse,


"There is no way to restore collapsed ecosystems within any reasonable timeframe. There are no ecological bailouts. In the financial vernacular, we will just have to take the hit."

Comment: dhw presents his 'humans plus food' as a way of laughing at my approach to God desiring humans and supplying a huge bush of life. These warning from humans tells us God must have known the problems that could arise and gave us a huge food supply. He also gave us the brains to accept control and manage it properly. Evolution is over and we are in charge. These warnings mean we are trying, but maybe not enough.

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