<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/">
<channel>
<title>AgnosticWeb.com - Chance v. Design Part 2</title>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/</link>
<description>An Agnostic&#039;s Brief Guide to the Universe</description>
<language>en</language>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MATT: <em>Dhw just replied that he doesn&amp;apos;t like the word &amp;quot;supernatural.&amp;quot; Maybe you should both consider the definition I raised in this thread. Dhw, might I offer a mathematician&amp;apos;s guidance? Let&amp;apos;s just define the terms.-Supernatural-- adj. A phenomenon that is unexplainable according to known laws and observation.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;Natural-- adj. A phenomenon that can be explained according to known laws and observation.</em>-Tony has rightly highlighted the fact that the term &amp;quot;supernatural&amp;quot; is often associated with irrationality ... you are regarded as a crank if you take so-called supernatural experiences seriously. The crucial point is that the laws we know and the observations we make are so restricted that we have no explanation for many of the phenomena we experience even in our daily lives. There are no known laws or observations that can <strong>explain</strong> consciousness, but I suspect that both you and I believe it exists. So is it to be called supernatural? In some contexts and for some people, the term entails going beyond the unexplainable into the realm of the fantastic, and the borderline between the two is subjective. That&amp;apos;s why I don&amp;apos;t like the word.-To illustrate this: Tony has asked you why &amp;quot;dark matter&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;dark energy&amp;quot; are not categorized as supernatural ... after all, they can&amp;apos;t be explained according to known laws and observations. We don&amp;apos;t even know what they are, and yet they are discussed in all seriousness.  OBEs and NDEs and shared visions, however, even when they provide information corroborated by third parties, are dismissed by some people as &amp;quot;supernatural&amp;quot;, and so not to be taken seriously. The faith of the materialist is based fair and square on the assumption that all the unsolved mysteries &amp;quot;<em>can be explained according to known laws and observations</em>&amp;quot;, while I as an agnostic am not prepared to make such an assumption, because maybe the laws of Nature extend far beyond those that we know. It&amp;apos;s not the definitions that are the problem, but the associations and assumptions.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11018</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11018</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2012 19:26:20 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>dhw</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Ack.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; No, I somehow pointed you down the wrong rabbit hole.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; You&amp;apos;ll never get Modern Warfare 4 to run on an NES.  It doesn&amp;apos;t matter how clever or tricky you think you are, as a designer you are a slave to your hardware.  &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Even with recent tools, you WILL find things that you simply cannot do.  Your vision will always need to be curtailed to what the hardware allows.  Comparing yourself to God in this way is utterly fallacious.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Dhw just replied that he doesn&amp;apos;t like the word &amp;quot;supernatural.&amp;quot;  Maybe you should both consider the definition I raised in this thread.  Dhw, might I offer a mathematician&amp;apos;s guidance?  Let&amp;apos;s just define the terms.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Supernatural--  adj.  A phenomenon that is unexplainable according to known laws and observation.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Natural--  adj.  A phenomenon that can be explained according to known known laws and observation.--Ok, we are slightly missing each other here. I don&amp;apos;t disagree really, I am simply saying their is an underlying misconception. -Modernwarfare will never run on the NES, but saying that a God or UI is bound by the same rules that we are is akin to saying that the mind of the designer is bound by the same limitations as the platform which he must design his program to run in. IN other words, what you are saying is akin to saying that YOU are only capable of writing a program in C++ for a 32-Bit Celeron with 256mb of Ram simply because that is the platform that you have chosen to design your program for, despite the fact that your development machine was a I7 with 96GB of RAM and YOUR brain processes at far greater speeds. That is saying that you are incapable of writing in Java, Basic, Fortran, or Assembler just because you chose to write your design in C++. -Neither system is without its governing rules, but the rules governing the limitations of the designer are not inherently the same rule governing the design. One of the constant issues we run into in design is that our minds are capable of coming up with concepts that work in our head and on paper that are beyond the capabilities of the current level of technology. I am saying that the grand designer may be in the same situation. His reality, his limitations, are not necessarily the limitations of our reality.</p>
</blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11014</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11014</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2012 03:46:28 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ack.-No, I somehow pointed you down the wrong rabbit hole.-You&amp;apos;ll never get Modern Warfare 4 to run on an NES.  It doesn&amp;apos;t matter how clever or tricky you think you are, as a designer you are a slave to your hardware.  -Even with recent tools, you WILL find things that you simply cannot do.  Your vision will always need to be curtailed to what the hardware allows.  Comparing yourself to God in this way is utterly fallacious.-Dhw just replied that he doesn&amp;apos;t like the word &amp;quot;supernatural.&amp;quot;  Maybe you should both consider the definition I raised in this thread.  Dhw, might I offer a mathematician&amp;apos;s guidance?  Let&amp;apos;s just define the terms.-Supernatural--  adj.  A phenomenon that is unexplainable according to known laws and observation.-Natural--  adj.  A phenomenon that can be explained according to known known laws and observation.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11012</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11012</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2012 00:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TONY: <em>Just out of curiosity, why does God have to be supernatural? Hell, for that matter, why do ghosts, spirits, ESP, OBE&amp;apos;s or NDE&amp;apos;s need to be any more supernatural than dark matter or dark energy, neither of which can be observed any more than God?&amp;#13;&amp;#10;In fact, I would argue that there can not be anything at all that is unnatural if you are a proponent for intelligent design, because in order for a designer to implement the natural world then the designer itself must in fact be natural. &amp;#13;&amp;#10;People misuse that word. Science says that dark matter and dark energy exist even though we have no direct evidence for their existence on the simple assertion that we observe something that doesn&amp;apos;t make sense unless we ASSUME that they do exist. We mere mortals of the non-scientific realm, though less than dust beneath their academic heals, are expected to take that as the gospel truth. Yet, when someone says aliens, esp, NDE, OBE, God, or any other thing that can not be observed DIRECTLY we label it as supernatural and label the person a quack. </em>-This is an extremely important observation, and I too dislike the word &amp;quot;supernatural&amp;quot;, as it presupposes that we know what is natural. David earlier drew our attention to two articles relating to brain research. The assumption is always that the different brain cells are the source of thought and even of a &amp;quot;switchboard&amp;quot; that selects and controls our thoughts. Although the latter researcher does use the word &amp;quot;mysterious&amp;quot;, there is no hint that the controlling power might be anything other than the cells themselves. This suggests that we have all kinds of living physical beings inside our heads, each co-operating with the other, and all of them in some &amp;quot;mysterious&amp;quot; way combining to create an identity which has no will of its own.&amp;#13;&amp;#10; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;Precisely the same argument can be applied to the existence of a universal intelligence. The manipulation of physical forces (the universe, living cells) is done by what? Themselves ... i.e. intelligently functioning mechanisms that magicked themselves into existence? Or by an overriding identity which some people call God? The unanswerable question of how this overriding identity can have come into existence does not invalidate the unlikelihood of chance working such magic. We are simply faced with two huge improbabilities, plus the fact that we understand so very little about the nature of the universe we live in.-Evidence? Nothing conclusive either way, of course. But the materialist&amp;apos;s refusal even to consider NDEs and other so-called psychic experiences, even while acknowledging that consciousness is an unsolved mystery, is no less prejudiced than the religious fundamentalist&amp;apos;s refusal even to consider the possibility that the universe is the product of impersonal Nature.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11010</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11010</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 19 Aug 2012 16:13:45 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>dhw</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Tony,&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; God is either above the laws of nature or he&amp;apos;s not.  If he&amp;apos;s not above the laws of nature, then logically he&amp;apos;s a part of the universe and is fully bound to its physical laws.  God is &amp;quot;natural.&amp;quot;&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; If God however IS above the laws of the universe, then--and only then--does he become abjectly unstudyable.  He becomes &amp;quot;supernatural.&amp;quot;  &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; In terms of your game designer analogy, you, the designer, are limited by hundreds of factors.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 1.  Memory&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 2.  Processor speed&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 3.  BUS throughput&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 4.  Inter-Device compatability&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 5.  Computer language&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 6.  System heat&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 7.  Power consumption&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; 8.  GDDR memory&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; The level of contol you ultimately exert is created by a literally dumb, simple, and unintellgent automaton that has all the above (and many more) physical constraints--entirely beyond your capacity to [surpass].  You, the creator, are bound by--and cannot surpass--the physical laws governing the automaton your simulation is running on.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; The only thing you can do is to run it on another machine, but all of those very real constraints move with you.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; [EDITED]-&amp;#13;&amp;#10;But I could design the game to run in flash, use almost no memory at all, and very little bandwidth. The point being, that while God might be limited by a set of laws it is not necessarily limited by the same laws that we are. I can design a game on paper that is not limited to any of the constraints that you mentioned, and yet create artificial constraints within the confines of the games design that are absolutely necessary for the game to work as intended.</p>
</blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11008</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11008</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 19 Aug 2012 03:28:23 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>If you stick with the strict definition of life from non-life, you have to come up with a working definition of what life actually is...-Not really.  You don&amp;apos;t have to have a definition of the natural numbers in order to perform integer arithmetic.  I would argue that only by attempting to create life, can the definition be created.  We&amp;apos;re in a black box here.</p>
</blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11004</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11004</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 13:36:45 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 3 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Wait a second... after all this time when you have argued with me over the existence of dark matter/dark energy, and over the nebulous effects of gravity and how they are using imaginary data to make their numbers work, you are reversing your opinion because a magazine wrote an article on it?-?????-&amp;#13;&amp;#10;I read the thread you responded to... (it has in fact, been 3 years) and have no idea what you&amp;apos;re asking.  Could you post the segment you responded to?</p>
</blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11003</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11003</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 13:33:10 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tony,-God is either above the laws of nature or he&amp;apos;s not.  If he&amp;apos;s not above the laws of nature, then logically he&amp;apos;s a part of the universe and is fully bound to its physical laws.  God is &amp;quot;natural.&amp;quot;-If God however IS above the laws of the universe, then--and only then--does he become abjectly unstudyable.  He becomes &amp;quot;supernatural.&amp;quot;  -In terms of your game designer analogy, you, the designer, are limited by hundreds of factors.-1.  Memory&amp;#13;&amp;#10;2.  Processor speed&amp;#13;&amp;#10;3.  BUS throughput&amp;#13;&amp;#10;4.  Inter-Device compatability&amp;#13;&amp;#10;5.  Computer language&amp;#13;&amp;#10;6.  System heat&amp;#13;&amp;#10;7.  Power consumption&amp;#13;&amp;#10;8.  GDDR memory-The level of contol you ultimately exert is created by a literally dumb, simple, and unintellgent automaton that has all the above (and many more) physical constraints--entirely beyond your capacity to [surpass].  You, the creator, are bound by--and cannot surpass--the physical laws governing the automaton your simulation is running on.-The only thing you can do is to run it on another machine, but all of those very real constraints move with you.-[EDITED]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11002</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11002</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 13:26:50 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you stick with the strict definition of life from non-life, you have to come up with a working definition of what life actually is...</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11001</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11001</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 03:41:27 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 3 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wait a second... after all this time when you have argued with me over the existence of dark matter/dark energy, and over the nebulous effects of gravity and how they are using imaginary data to make their numbers work, you are reversing your opinion because a magazine wrote an article on it?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11000</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=11000</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 03:38:45 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 2 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>And science can&amp;apos;t tell us anything at all about a &amp;apos;creative force&amp;apos; because if such a creative force is &amp;apos;supernatural&amp;apos; it is by definition outside of the problem domain of science, which is the physical world.  The best you can say about a creator is &amp;apos;maybe.&amp;apos;  This is both because of ignorance of unknown properties of our universe, and for things we think we know.  &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Look, god is supernatural or he&amp;apos;s not.  If he&amp;apos;s not, he&amp;apos;s subject to and not above the laws of the universe and therefore subject to scientific inquiry.  If however he&amp;apos;s supernatural, he is outside the physical universe and any claims that he/she/it affects the physical universe has to come up with a way that it could do that, (including defining at least some of its physical limits). &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; -Just out of curiosity, why does God have to be supernatural? Hell, for that matter, why do ghosts, spirits, ESP, OBE&amp;apos;s or NDE&amp;apos;s need to be any more supernatural than dark matter or dark energy, neither of which can be observed any more than God?-In fact, I would argue that there can not be anything at all that is unnatural if you are a proponent for intelligent design, because in order for a designer to implement the natural world then the designer itself must in fact be natural. -People misuse that word. Science says that dark matter and dark energy exist even though we have no direct evidence for their existence on the simple assertion that we observe something that doesn&amp;apos;t make sense unless we ASSUME that they do exist. We mere mortals of the non-scientific realm, though less than dust beneath their academic heals, are expected to take that as the gospel truth. Yet, when someone says aliens, esp, NDE, OBE, God, or any other thing that can not be observed DIRECTLY we label it as supernatural and label the person a quack. -As to your assumption that the designer must in fact be subject to the laws, I do not necessarily agree. I can design rules for a game, as a game designer, and create a world in which entities come into existence, wink out of existence, and all within that world are subject to the rules which I created. However, I, as the designer, am not. I have my own rules, my own limitations, my own restrictions, and my own abilities that are far beyond the ken of the normal entities existing within that world. If I have that ability as a humble game designer, how much more so would the grand designer of life, the universe, and everything?</p>
</blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=10999</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=10999</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 03:01:48 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>Balance_Maintained</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 3 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A marvelous comparison of the thinking behind global warming and intelligent design, and how the thinking is the same!-http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/craigsteiner/2012/08/06/global_warming_debunked_by_intelligent_design/page/full/</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=10946</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=10946</guid>
<pubDate>Mon, 06 Aug 2012 14:32:09 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>dhw, - I about jumped out of my chair with your chimp statement... I haven&amp;apos;t had a good laugh in awhile!  However the odds are better getting at cracking a cipher using random methods than with just incrementing one letter at a time.   - In the grand scope of things, when we figure out the &amp;quot;how&amp;quot; behind abiogenesis (even if it didn&amp;apos;t begin here on earth) the next step will be in determining the probability distribution.  Once that is accomplished however, I don&amp;apos;t think it&amp;apos;ll be a stunning a blow to theism as you might think.  As I discussed earlier, Process theology via Alfred North Whitehead, Heraclitus et al, offers a very comprehensive view that allows one to have a supernatural god without violating the scientific method.   - <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Process-Metaphysics-Introduction-Philosophy-Suny/dp/0791428184/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1247420135&amp;sr=8-2">http://www.amazon.com/Process-Metaphysics-Introduction-Philosophy-Suny/dp/0791428184/re...</a> - I read the book 4 years ago but will be undertaking it again in light of this forum.  I encourage you--or anyone else to hop in.  It might make for some interesting dialogue.    - Overall--really I&amp;apos;m done with the whole chance thing.  The only--ONLY reason I brought it up was to make sure that the position on chance was thoroughly understood.  From your initial treatise, I really felt that you were arguing against chance from a position of ignorance.  It&amp;apos;s clear you&amp;apos;re not, and I do hope I wasn&amp;apos;t seen as insulting your intelligence.  My goal was to attempt to show why chance appears compelling.  When you couple probability with the fact that people are trying to solve the problem, it is very easy to settle back with some popcorn, and consider it &amp;quot;solved in the future.&amp;quot; - I challenge my &amp;quot;pale atheist&amp;quot; friends all the time on such assumptions, though the strongest challenge to the statement &amp;quot;God does not exist&amp;quot; is purely from the epistemological challenge that we can&amp;apos;t know that answer, to which I preach to the choir here. - I will be starting a new thread today, abandoning the chance thread as it wasn&amp;apos;t even the most interesting to me, though I did create one hell of a good lesson plan for the introduction to probability.  (Sans &amp;quot;origins&amp;quot; overtones.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1695</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1695</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 17:37:17 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matt: <em>The best that chance can give us is either the processes that initiated life were completely random (fair die roll) or they weren&amp;apos;t...We cannot know if we were designed, thus meaning for all practical purposes, we have no other choice than to trust the origin of life question to science.</em>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;The argument cuts both ways. If we cannot know whether we were designed, we cannot know whether we came into existence by chance. So epistemologically speaking, science can&amp;apos;t help us any more than metaphysics can.  - Matt: <em>Both explanations are unsatisfactory, but one is less so.</em>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;Why is chance less unsatisfactory than design? Do you have any objective criteria for measuring their unsatisfactoriness? Besides, why should one believe in an explanation one finds unsatisfactory? (This is the reason for many of us being agnostic.) - Matt: <em>We do not know how the chemistry happened, we only know that it DID happen. It could have been designed, but we all agree we can&amp;apos;t know.&amp;quot; So in that broader sense, why try? </em>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;As you will have learned from your study of epistemology, the borders between belief and knowledge are not clear. In the context of the origin of life, we can never get beyond belief. Eventually scientists may crack the code and discover how inanimate matter became animate, and eventually we may find that the universe is teeming with life. I find these possibilities immensely exciting ... and I would say the quest for knowledge is an end in itself. But I would also surmise that if these two discoveries were made, a lot of people would tend to believe in abiogenesis, which would be a hard knock for theism.   - Matt [referring to my refusal to believe that my pet chimp could spontaneously type a Shakespeare sonnet]: <em>It&amp;apos;s bad to use a chimp in that scenario because you&amp;apos;re installing intelligence into the situation which completely messes with the randomness. (The chimp has a will and will not pound out random information.) </em>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;Sorry, I forgot to mention that my pet chimp is illiterate, doesn&amp;apos;t speak English, never had any typing lessons and, despite many years of one-to-one tuition, still can&amp;apos;t say let alone spell the word &amp;apos;banana&amp;apos;.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1691</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1691</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 07:44:20 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>dhw</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The importance of chance is underlined by people such as yourself that don&amp;apos;t think that all of this can come about by chance.   - What is *most certainly* my view is that the best that chance can give us is either the processes that initiated life were *completely* random (fair die roll) or they weren&amp;apos;t.  To me, that&amp;apos;s precious more than can be said by invoking any supernatural beings.  The supernatural explains everything and thus nothing.   - Earlier I talked about studying epistemology... part of this is analyzing what kinds of knowledge are knowable or not... well any designer that is &amp;apos;supernatural&amp;apos; in nature is by definition not knowable.  We cannot know if we were designed, thus meaning for all practical purposes, we have no other choice than to trust the origin of life question to science.   - &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; ...I find both explanations unsatisfactory. That&amp;apos;s why I&amp;apos;m an agnostic. But arguing about odds is certainly not going to convince me that a chimp can spontaneously type out a sonnet, or non-life can spontaneously turn into life.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;&amp;#13;&amp;#10; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;Both explanations are unsatisfactory, but one is less so.   - The joke in my chimp statement was probably taken purely as a joke. - It&amp;apos;s bad to use a chimp in that scenario because you&amp;apos;re installing intelligence into the situation which completely messes with the randomness.  (The chimp has a will and will not pound out random information.)  Purely random chance is always sans intelligence, I would say--it&amp;apos;s part of the definition.  And purely random chance says... what I have been saying.  I won&amp;apos;t repeat it.   - I can tell you this, when writing an algorithm to crack a cipher, one of the ways to do it by brute force is to  randomly pick the keys.  The random part is key however--the hardware itself must be built with a true random circuit.   - If its a 56-bit key, (2^56) that&amp;apos;s a max of 2284931317 years.  Assuming one instruction per second (and modern processors can do say, millions) breaking this key takes far less.  And that is what lies in my argument involving the chemistry.  In a solution we have a cipher, and series of reactions that created life is like the encryption key.   - I bring this up here because that&amp;apos;s the core background I have in dealing with probability.  Maybe you&amp;apos;ll understand why I don&amp;apos;t discount chance as surely as you (and Dr. Turell do).  Biomolecules are organic molecules, and organic molecules are made of inorganic components.  We do not know how the chemistry happened, we only know that it DID happen.  It could have been designed, but we all agree we can&amp;apos;t know!  So in that broader sense, why try?   - &gt; Where David and I do agree is in our admiration for your planning and your enthusiasm. As for your determination not to sacrifice your family, it shows that despite what I&amp;apos;ve written above, you&amp;apos;ve got your priorities right when it comes to life on Earth! - A thank you is all I can say here.  =-)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1688</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1688</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2009 03:16:45 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Matt is still gallantly trying to teach David and myself all about probability. - Let me reassure you ... you have made the theory perfectly clear. What is not clear to me is its importance in relation to the unique and therefore incomparable problem of the origin of life. There are two things that come to my simple but sceptical mind. The first is this: if I told you that my pet chimp had sat down and spontaneously typed out a Shakespeare sonnet, would you believe me? To spell it out: everyone has limits to their credulity, regardless of all the mathematical formulae, and that is what our discussion is all about. If you tell me that once upon a time inanimate, inert, unthinking, unfeeling globules of matter spontaneously put themselves together to start off a programme for life and evolution, I shan&amp;apos;t believe you. - Secondly, you wrote: &amp;quot;<em>In order to be able to TRULY answer the question of the probability of abiogenesis we would have to have the same information available to us as we do for the dice, namely ... knowledge of the entire system under investigation....Shapiro (and anyone else for that matter) cannot be taken beyond the raw realm of speculation when they offer odds.&amp;quot;</em> - Frankly, I couldn&amp;apos;t care less about the odds, and the only truth I&amp;apos;m interested in is not the accuracy of odds for or against, but whether abiogenesis happened. You are absolutely right when you say we cannot know the entire system. All the more reason why in our current state of ignorance we should refrain from drawing conclusions (or rather, more importantly, theists and atheists should refrain from bashing one another). You say &amp;quot;<em>chance offers us a &amp;quot;better&amp;quot; explanation than anything else we&amp;apos;ve got&amp;quot;. </em>David says God offers us a &amp;quot;better&amp;quot; explanation.  I find both explanations unsatisfactory. That&amp;apos;s why I&amp;apos;m an agnostic. But arguing about odds is certainly not going to convince me that a chimp can spontaneously type out a sonnet, or non-life can spontaneously turn into life. - Where David and I do agree is in our admiration for your planning and your enthusiasm. As for your determination not to sacrifice your family, it shows that despite what I&amp;apos;ve written above, you&amp;apos;ve got your priorities right when it comes to life on Earth!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1683</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1683</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:24:49 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>dhw</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>You have no right to confine my thought patterns  to the agreed-to constraints of the scientific method. When I was in your position as a research fellow in cardiology and wrote papers with my boss we followed that agreement. We did not invoke supernatural interference to explain our results. But I&amp;apos;m not doing that now. I know the method and I can read the articles and understand from my previous knowledge, and I can reach my own conclusions to satisy me. &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;  - The confinement isn&amp;apos;t placed by me its placed by your hypothesis. &amp;#13;&amp;#10;  &amp;#13;&amp;#10;If you say life either came about by chance or design, that&amp;apos;s fine.  However if you choose to define life&amp;apos;s origin by THAT hypothesis, you need to be able to construct some kind of method to detect design, and to be able to differentiate it&amp;apos;s effects from the effects of chance.  However, the assumptions of the scientific method do not allow you to do this if you invoke a non-physical entity.  (Defined by me as &amp;quot;supernatural.&amp;quot;)  You can &amp;quot;feel&amp;quot; there is a creator, but empirically you have constructed the question in such a way that it forces all supernatural entities out of the picture by virtue of the method involved to investigate it.  You cannot use physical evidence to justify the existence of something that is not physical, therefore the constraint is placed by you--not me.   - If god is supernatural, those are the only two options available that fit within those constraints.  As a panentheist, you actually are close to one of them.   - &gt; Thare must a universe friendly to have life in order for life to evolve. We do not know that there any other universes around. We only can know this one, so we should stick to those considerations. John Leslie said God or multiple universes. Only two choices and that is right. The Big Bang is either a creation or came from something else, which we both agree we cannot study. Again two choices.&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;  - But only one is actually &amp;quot;studyable&amp;quot; (if that&amp;apos;s a word!).  Again... we need to be pragmatic.  To me, even though I&amp;apos;m not a complete materialist--I only care about questions that are knowable.  Supernatural design is not one of those.   - &gt; The probability of a friendly-for-life earth planet is a second issue. Either we are on the only one, or there are others, two choices. And finally the origin of life is extremely complex. I think we will find that a single-celled organism is so complex, that by the passive method of natural selection, 400 million years is not enough time for its development. Natural chance or design, two choices. Antony Flew is on my side. &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; Have I made my point clear enough? - What is clear to me is that I&amp;apos;ll be a pretty awful probability teacher.   - What I synthesize from your view is this:  We only have two options, Design or Chance.  Because you feel the odds are so low, you err towards design--though for scientific reasons remain non-committal.  (The exact--and i mean EXACT opposite of my position.  I err towards chance and remain non-committal for philosophical reasons.) - My issue is that I just can&amp;apos;t seem to get across what I&amp;apos;m talking about in terms of chance. - In the *worst-case* scenario, you have dice-style probability.  (Because the alternative helps life become more probable as time moves forward.  Perhaps this is where your designer lays--but it is indiscernible from chance.) - The problem is that there is no reason to assume that 400 million years is even needed;  by chance you only need one success.  The odds could be 1/2^1000 but if life came about by a die-roll, every toss of the dice produces an equal opportunity for that success to be rolled as any one of the failures.   - You are right that we only have one knowable universe, but that actually underlies my point in that we can&amp;apos;t attach probabilities on systems that we don&amp;apos;t know anything about.  (That&amp;apos;s why I pretty much ignore numbers anytime someone throws one out there.)</p>
</blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1679</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1679</guid>
<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:26:49 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><blockquote><p>&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &gt; I must disagree. Life occurred either by design OR by chance. &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; False Dilemma.  As you accept the scientific method, you accept the assumption that we cannot delineate from natural and supernatural.  &gt; &gt;&amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; The probabilities that have to be considered in order are: 1)what are the chances for this universe to appear. Penrose calculated an estimate of 10 to the minus 300 prior to the initial conditions, and 10 to the minus 123 if the initial conditions known to cosmologists were present.2) the probabilities of the Earth to be as it is allowing an attempt at life. 3) Going from non-living organic molecules to an organized group of them allowing life. (These have been calculated by legitimate scientists and I&amp;apos;ll get the particulars for you.)&amp;#13;&amp;#10; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; The legitimacy of the scientists isn&amp;apos;t at stake when what they&amp;apos;re talking about is literally undefinable.  Being able to attach a probability of the universe arising by chance means that you have to have some idea of the distribution of universes at large and actually *know* how they get started in the first place.   - &gt; Furthermore, you don&amp;apos;t need to explain the origin of the universe in order to explain the origin of life.   &amp;#13;&amp;#10; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; But by accepting the scientific method, you also exclude a supernatural designer, as above.   - You have no right to confine my thought patterns  to the agreed-to constraints of the scientific method. When I was in your position as a research fellow in cardiology and wrote papers with my boss we followed that agreement. We did not invoke supernatural interference to explain our results. But I&amp;apos;m not doing that now. I know the method and I can read the articles and understand from my previous knowledge, and I can reach my own conclusions to satisy me.  - Thare must a universe friendly to have life in order for life to evolve. We do not know that there any other universes around. We only can know this one, so we should stick to those considerations. John Leslie said God or multiple universes. Only two choices and that is right. The Big Bang is either a creation or came from something else, which we both agree we cannot study. Again two choices. - The probability of a friendly-for-life earth planet is a second issue. Either we are on the only one, or there are others, two choices. And finally the origin of life is extremely complex. I think we will find that a single-celled organism is so complex, that by the passive method of natural selection, 400 million years is not enough time for its development. Natural chance or design, two choices. Antony Flew is on my side.  - Have I made my point clear enough?</p>
</blockquote></blockquote>]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1675</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1675</guid>
<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 21:08:07 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>David Turell</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>dhw &amp; Dr. Turell, - Let me try a visual demonstration. - <a href="http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/Hbase/Math/immath/dice.gif">http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/Hbase/Math/immath/dice.gif</a> - What we have here is a probability distribution of two dice (in keeping with my original tactic.)   - Your question of the chances of a chimp pounding out a Shakespearean sonnet is identical to asking what are the chances that we&amp;apos;ll select two ones.  (In this case, it is 1/36,  but say in the case of the sonnet it would be  - 1/(27^(the number of letters and spaces in the sonnet)) - The one thing that is the same in both instances, is that the odds of picking any single string of words (or numbers) is absolutely identical to picking the one we&amp;apos;re looking for.  The odds of picking a sonnet that is different by only 1 letter is also - 1/(27^(the number of letters and spaces in the sonnet) - Mark the dice pairs into &amp;quot;right&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;left.&amp;quot;   - If you ask the question &amp;quot;What are the odds that the right dice is 5 and the right dice is 2,&amp;quot;  The answer is also 1/36. - Invent a random string of characters the same length as your sonnet.  The odds of pulling this string out of the total number of possibilities is identical to pulling out your sonnet.  (Thankfully, letters are just 27-sided dice, so the analogy here is simply one of scale.)  If you would like to know my background here, I&amp;apos;m trained in some cryptanalysis, and the statistical techniques such as these are used all the time.  But again... as you get closer and closer to perfectly matching the sonnet, you&amp;apos;ll have something that more closely matches the string you&amp;apos;re looking for, and in this case the question is &amp;quot;how perfectly do you need it to emulate the sonnet?&amp;quot;  Is fairly close good enough?  When you take this analogy across to one of life, how close do you need the system to be life before you call it life?  Chemistry is rarely so perfect.  In biochemistry, the structure of many reactions could have been made better had we designed them ourselves.  And if we can do... ANYTHING better than a supposed creator, that should seem suspicious as to the power of this entity.   - &amp;#13;&amp;#10;-----------------&amp;#13;&amp;#10;In order to be able to TRULY answer the question of the probability of abiogenesis we would have to have the same information available to us as we do for the dice, namely--knowledge of the entire system under investigation.  We would have to be able to run an experiment and see how the different combinatorial distributions of molecules would map out.  We--don&amp;apos;t have that--so Shapiro (and anyone else for that matter) cannot be taken beyond the raw realm of speculation when they offer odds.  (Sorry Dr. Turell, you are mistaken here.)   - We&amp;apos;re in a situation where we know even less than we&amp;apos;d like to.  However, chance offers us a *better* explanation than anything else we&amp;apos;ve got.  (At least we know something about chance!) - If it turns out that life couldn&amp;apos;t have arisen here on our planet, then the next thing I would do is start looking for a planet where it could.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1666</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1666</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 19:43:13 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
<item>
<title>Chance v. Design Part 4 (reply)</title>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dr. Turell, - &gt; &gt; Either life came about by a discrete (die roll or coin flip) &amp;apos;accident&amp;apos; to which all outcomes have an equal chance of being selected, or it is the result of accretion, in which processes of evolution guided these primitive stochastic systems to their ultimate forms via selection, a process that has been well documented and studied.  &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt; I must disagree. Life occurred either by design OR by chance.  - False Dilemma.  As you accept the scientific method, you accept the assumption that we cannot delineate from natural and supernatural.  Therefore you constrain yourself necessarily to explanations that do not invoke the supernatural.  As this is the case, God either exists in the universe as simply another force (albeit one that is completely undetected) or outside of the universe in a position where he cannot interfere on more than a macroscopic scale.   - In both of these possibilities, only the latter is acceptable, because as of now we have not detected any forces that have no explanation whatsoever.  You might say consciousness... but we know enough about the physical processes that nothing abnormal goes on there (electricity and chemistry.)   - &gt;&amp;#13;&amp;#10;The probabilities that have to be considered in order are: 1)what are the chances for this universe to appear. Penrose calculated an estimate of 10 to the minus 300 prior to the initial conditions, and 10 to the minus 123 if the initial conditions known to cosmologists were present.2) the probabilities of the Earth to be as it is allowing an attempt at life. 3) Going from non-living organic molecules to an organized group of them allowing life. (These have been calculated by legitimate scientists and I&amp;apos;ll get the particulars for you.) &amp;#13;&amp;#10;&gt;  - The legitimacy of the scientists isn&amp;apos;t at stake when what they&amp;apos;re talking about is literally undefinable.  Being able to attach a probability of the universe arising by chance means that you have to have some idea of the distribution of universes at large and actually *know* how they get started in the first place.  We don&amp;apos;t.  We have no scientifically valid theory for explaining anything about the universe before the universe existed:  so attaching a probability at that point is the definition of preposterous.  (We have untestable inferences.)  Furthermore, you don&amp;apos;t need to explain the origin of the universe in order to explain the origin of life.  That would be like saying we need to explain the origin of the UK by explaining why men fight.  They are problems with different scopes, though related to a degree.   - &amp;#13;&amp;#10;We have a better knowledge about chemistry, but your argument here seems to be &amp;quot;science hasn&amp;apos;t given us a good enough theory so it must be design.&amp;quot;  But by accepting the scientific method, you also exclude a supernatural designer, as above.  Even aside from that, the habitable zone in terms of our sun is from Venus to mars, and a Jupiter-like planet is also beneficial.  And Jupiter-like planets are incredibly common.  Furthermore, if Io ends up having a warm-water ocean under the surface the concept of a habitable zone itself is rather... &amp;quot;holey.&amp;quot; - As for me, the biggest difference between my view and your view is that for some reason you seem to claim there&amp;apos;s evidence of a designer, but the only evidence I can see you bringing is a lack of an explanation.  And... that&amp;apos;s not evidence.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
<link>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1665</link>
<guid>https://agnosticweb.com/index.php?id=1665</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:42:05 +0000</pubDate>
<category>Evolution</category><dc:creator>xeno6696</dc:creator>
</item>
</channel>
</rss>
