The role of chance and contingency in life (Introduction)

by dhw, Wednesday, January 21, 2015, 19:39 (3593 days ago) @ George Jelliss

George: The orbits of asteroid and Earth may be calculable to an extent, but not over the whole history of the evolution of the solar system. Tiny differences in events, possibly down to the level of quantum uncertainty combined with chaos make it incalculable, even by an impossible being with infinitely improbable capabilities, like a Maxwell's demon, and is therefore random. -TONY: I don't believe I said they were, but simply because we can not calculate backwards does not mean they were random. That is illogical, and akin to saying that because you lack the information/capability to know what happened it must be random. Ignorance is not equivalent with randomness. -Nor of course is ignorance equivalent with design. If we lack the information and the capability, we are in no position to argue one way or the other.-TONY: Imagine that. The designer can MAKE things happen even while allowing the players the free will and agency, within the limitations of the rules and physics of the game, to chose their own path; do so without foreknowledge of the path which they will choose; and he can still know the eventual outcome of the game. Hrmm.. That sounds familiar for some reason..-GEORGE: If I play Snakes and Ladders I know the designer has made it so that the players are likely to get an eventful entertaining game. But I still think the rolls of the dice can properly be said to be random. And I doubt that some transcendental being has bothered to rig the game to give the result he wants the players to have on that occasion for some inscrutable reason!-George's image ties in perfectly with the idea that God (if he exists) created life for his own entertainment, and I think most of us would agree that it's far more entertaining to watch a game without knowing the outcome. The thought is anathema to many religious people, but as a speculation it has just as much “validity” as the speculation that he has a personal interest in us, loves us, and plans a bright future for those who obey the commands of the people who say they know what he wants us to do. (Sorry, Tony!)-Looking back on my own life, I can see a long chain of causes and effects, and some of the most substantial ones are as random as one can imagine. If I hadn't been bitten by a mosquito I would never have met my wife. If a friend of mine hadn't happened to make a casual remark when I was visiting him, I would never have spent 36 years as a university lecturer. On a dreadfully sombre and very recent note, if a friend of mine hadn't been blinded by the sunlight just as he drove round a bend and just as a lorry came thundering in the opposite direction, he would still be alive today.