The role of chance and contingency in life (Introduction)
by George Jelliss 
, Crewe, Sunday, January 18, 2015, 21:04 (3596 days ago)
This article by Prof Alice Roberts may be of interest-http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/18/scientists-wrong-luck-cancer-genes-alice-roberts-Randomness is useful - even necessary.
--
GPJ
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Monday, January 19, 2015, 00:32 (3596 days ago) @ George Jelliss
George:This article by Prof Alice Roberts may be of interest > > http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/18/scientists-wrong-luck-cancer-genes-alice... > Randomness is useful - even necessary.-Thank you for this article.I view this as a parallel to Gould's approach that everything is contingency, and that pure chance led to humans. I take an opposite view as you know. In this area of thought it is all opinion with nothing solid.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by Balance_Maintained , U.S.A., Monday, January 19, 2015, 10:28 (3596 days ago) @ David Turell
George:This article by Prof Alice Roberts may be of interest > > > > http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/18/scientists-wrong-luck-cancer-genes-alice... > > > Randomness is useful - even necessary. > >David: Thank you for this article.I view this as a parallel to Gould's approach that everything is contingency, and that pure chance led to humans. I take an opposite view as you know. In this area of thought it is all opinion with nothing solid.-I think these scientist should, perhaps more than anyone, understand that the appearance of randomness is a far cry from the reality of randomness. For example, when I met my wife, it would, at the outset, seem to be something entirely random. It was not planned. But I was at that party because I was at that university. I was at that university because I chose to pursue music. I chose to pursue music because of my experience in highschool band. I chose highschool band because of my love for music. I had that love for music because of my mom. -That apparently random event was not random at all, it was the intersection of a million different choices spanning my entire life, and part of my mom's life before I was born. (How she developed HER love of music.) I don't believe in destiny, but just as destiny is an illusion, so is randomness.
--
What is the purpose of living? How about, 'to reduce needless suffering. It seems to me to be a worthy purpose.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Monday, January 19, 2015, 14:53 (3596 days ago) @ Balance_Maintained
George:This article by Prof Alice Roberts may be of interest > > > > > > http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/18/scientists-wrong-luck-cancer-genes-alice... > > > > > Randomness is useful - even necessary. > > > >David: Thank you for this article.I view this as a parallel to Gould's approach that everything is contingency, and that pure chance led to humans. I take an opposite view as you know. In this area of thought it is all opinion with nothing solid. > > Tony: I think these scientist should, perhaps more than anyone, understand that the appearance of randomness is a far cry from the reality of randomness. > > That apparently random event was not random at all, it was the intersection of a million different choices spanning my entire life, and part of my mom's life before I was born. (How she developed HER love of music.) I don't believe in destiny, but just as destiny is an illusion, so is randomness.-In your explanation you have described a series of contingent choices. This means the pattern was directed by your desires. In Darwinian evolution, as a theory, chance plays a huge role. That is the randomness I was discussing. At your level of discussion, in my life, a world-famous cardiology professor approached me to be his research fellow. That was a chance event in my life. At that juncture I had several sub-specialty interests, and he did not know I had a strong attraction to cardiology. We knew each other but had never spoken about it. I accepted and never regretted it. I view it as a combination of random and directed. My life has been a series of these events.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by Balance_Maintained , U.S.A., Monday, January 19, 2015, 18:45 (3595 days ago) @ David Turell
David: In your explanation you have described a series of contingent choices. This means the pattern was directed by your desires. In Darwinian evolution, as a theory, chance plays a huge role. That is the randomness I was discussing. At your level of discussion, in my life, a world-famous cardiology professor approached me to be his research fellow. That was a chance event in my life. At that juncture I had several sub-specialty interests, and he did not know I had a strong attraction to cardiology. We knew each other but had never spoken about it. I accepted and never regretted it. I view it as a combination of random and directed. My life has been a series of these events.-And how is the determination being made about what is random? Is it random chance if one of the parties is acting with intent, but not the other, as in the case of predator and prey? Is it random if both parties are acting with intent, but different intent, and the path dictated by their intentions intersects? Is it truly random if a star explodes because of a series of progressive changes that were dictated by the very nature of its composition like a clock winding down? Is it random if the ejecta, traveling along a trajectory determined by the explosion of the star crashes in to planet Earth which is also traveling along a determined path?-Are any of these things ACTUALLY random, or do they only have the APPEARANCE of randomness because we do not have all the information? -Random: made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision.-Nothing happens without a method. Nothing at all. Everything obeys rules. So, that leaves the question of, is consciousness, design, and/or intent the determining factor in randomness?- **Edit** I am assuming of course that you mean random chance and not simply the probability that something will occur.
--
What is the purpose of living? How about, 'to reduce needless suffering. It seems to me to be a worthy purpose.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Monday, January 19, 2015, 20:15 (3595 days ago) @ Balance_Maintained
> Tony: And how is the determination being made about what is random? Is it truly random if a star explodes because of a series of progressive changes that were dictated by the very nature of its composition like a clock winding down? Is it random if the ejecta, traveling along a trajectory determined by the explosion of the star crashes in to planet Earth which is also traveling along a determined path? > > Are any of these things ACTUALLY random, or do they only have the APPEARANCE of randomness because we do not have all the information?-With all the information about the course of the Earth and the ejecta, of course the intersection can be predicted. Without that information of course the collision is a surprise and looks random. > > Tony: Random: made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision. > > Nothing happens without a method. Nothing at all. Everything obeys rules. So, that leaves the question of, is consciousness, design, and/or intent the determining factor in randomness? > > > **Edit** I am assuming of course that you mean random chance and not simply the probability that something will occur.-Obviously, what I am looking at is the issue of teleology in evolution. That involves probability as follows: Random mutations do follow rules in the genome, but some of them are truly random in appearance. Mistakes in copying for example. They suddenly appear. Other mutations are the result of epigenetic effects and are not truly random. Specified complexity in biology requires more than contingent chance sequential events. Biology is not as strictly mechanistic as your cosmologic example. Thus the true importance of the consideration of randomness in Darwin theory. Gould said we are a glorious accident. I don't believe it.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by Balance_Maintained , U.S.A., Monday, January 19, 2015, 21:29 (3595 days ago) @ David Turell
> > Tony: And how is the determination being made about what is random? Is it truly random if a star explodes because of a series of progressive changes that were dictated by the very nature of its composition like a clock winding down? Is it random if the ejecta, traveling along a trajectory determined by the explosion of the star crashes in to planet Earth which->David: Obviously, what I am looking at is the issue of teleology in evolution. That involves probability as follows: Random mutations do follow rules in the genome, but some of them are truly random in appearance. Mistakes in copying for example. They suddenly appear. Other mutations are the result of epigenetic effects and are not truly random. Specified complexity in biology requires more than contingent chance sequential events. Biology is not as strictly mechanistic as your cosmologic example. Thus the true importance of the consideration of randomness in Darwin theory. Gould said we are a glorious accident. I don't believe it.-And who defines what is a mistake? I'm not saying that they don't happen, but then again, we also know the genome has self correcting functions so that these errors generally don't get out of control or last very long. I would not be surprised to find out that 4 generations or so is enough to wipe out the copy errors for most things. Call it a hunch. -I am not arguing against the possibility of randomness, in its entirety, but I do not believe that is as big of a factor as they would have us believe.
--
What is the purpose of living? How about, 'to reduce needless suffering. It seems to me to be a worthy purpose.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Monday, January 19, 2015, 21:54 (3595 days ago) @ Balance_Maintained
tony: I would not be surprised to find out that 4 generations or so is enough to wipe out the copy errors for most things. Call it a hunch.-I think to undo a copy error it would require new corrective mutations, which are certainly possible. > > tony: I am not arguing against the possibility of randomness, in its entirety, but I do not believe that is as big of a factor as they would have us believe.-I agree
The role of chance and contingency in life
by George Jelliss , Crewe, Monday, January 19, 2015, 22:41 (3595 days ago) @ Balance_Maintained
The orbits of asteroid and Earth may be calculable to an extent, but not over the whole history of the evolution of the solar system. Tiny differences in events, possibly down to the level of quantum uncertainty combined with chaos make it incalculable, even by an impossible being with infinitely improbable capabilities, like a Maxwell's demon, and is therefore random. -Was going to say something else but have forgotten what!
--
GPJ
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Tuesday, January 20, 2015, 00:49 (3595 days ago) @ George Jelliss
George: The orbits of asteroid and Earth may be calculable to an extent, but not over the whole history of the evolution of the solar system. Tiny differences in events, possibly down to the level of quantum uncertainty combined with chaos make it incalculable, even by an impossible being with infinitely improbable capabilities, like a Maxwell's demon, and is therefore random. > > Was going to say something else but have forgotten what!-Thanks for presenting an excellent point. Our solar system and its universe are not truly clockwork.-What will Tony comment?-Please give us your other thought when it reappears. At my age I know the frustration of the aging brain.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by Balance_Maintained , U.S.A., Tuesday, January 20, 2015, 07:50 (3595 days ago) @ David Turell
George: The orbits of asteroid and Earth may be calculable to an extent, but not over the whole history of the evolution of the solar system. Tiny differences in events, possibly down to the level of quantum uncertainty combined with chaos make it incalculable, even by an impossible being with infinitely improbable capabilities, like a Maxwell's demon, and is therefore random. > > > > Was going to say something else but have forgotten what!-I don't believe I said they were, but simply because we can not calculate backwards does not mean they were random. That is illogical, and akin to saying that because you lack the information/capability to know what happened it must be random. Ignorance is not equivalent with randomness. -Further, knowing the ultimate outcome of something does not require knowledge of every minute detail, only a good understanding of the way things work. I see good examples of this all the time in Game Design. I understand the systems I design, not in a superficial way, but in a deep and meaningful way. I don't have to know what each and every player will do to know what the end result of them playing the game will be. I know the possible outcomes, I know the likelihood of those outcomes, and even if the player runs in circles for days and wanders about aimlessly for a while, I know what the outcome will be.
--
What is the purpose of living? How about, 'to reduce needless suffering. It seems to me to be a worthy purpose.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Tuesday, January 20, 2015, 14:52 (3595 days ago) @ Balance_Maintained
> Tony: Further, knowing the ultimate outcome of something does not require knowledge of every minute detail, only a good understanding of the way things work. I see good examples of this all the time in Game Design. I understand the systems I design, not in a superficial way, but in a deep and meaningful way. I don't have to know what each and every player will do to know what the end result of them playing the game will be. I know the possible outcomes, I know the likelihood of those outcomes, and even if the player runs in circles for days and wanders about aimlessly for a while, I know what the outcome will be.-You know the outcome. You are controlling the reality of this imaginary world. Of course it is not random.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by Balance_Maintained , U.S.A., Tuesday, January 20, 2015, 19:19 (3594 days ago) @ David Turell
> > Tony: Further, knowing the ultimate outcome of something does not require knowledge of every minute detail, only a good understanding of the way things work. I see good examples of this all the time in Game Design. I understand the systems I design, not in a superficial way, but in a deep and meaningful way. I don't have to know what each and every player will do to know what the end result of them playing the game will be. I know the possible outcomes, I know the likelihood of those outcomes, and even if the player runs in circles for days and wanders about aimlessly for a while, I know what the outcome will be. > > You know the outcome. You are controlling the reality of this imaginary world. Of course it is not random.-Imagine that. The designer can MAKE things happen even while allowing the players the free will and agency, within the limitations of the rules and physics of the game, to chose their own path; do so without foreknowledge of the path which they will choose; and he can still know the eventual outcome of the game. Hrmm.. That sounds familiar for some reason..
--
What is the purpose of living? How about, 'to reduce needless suffering. It seems to me to be a worthy purpose.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by George Jelliss , Crewe, Tuesday, January 20, 2015, 23:20 (3594 days ago) @ Balance_Maintained
If I play Snakes and Ladders I know the designer has made it so that the players are likely to get an eventful entertaining game. But I still think the rolls of the dice can properly be said to be random. And I doubt that some transcendental being has bothered to rig the game to give the result he wants the players to have on that occasion for some inscrutable reason!
--
GPJ
The role of chance and contingency in life
George: The orbits of asteroid and Earth may be calculable to an extent, but not over the whole history of the evolution of the solar system. Tiny differences in events, possibly down to the level of quantum uncertainty combined with chaos make it incalculable, even by an impossible being with infinitely improbable capabilities, like a Maxwell's demon, and is therefore random. -TONY: I don't believe I said they were, but simply because we can not calculate backwards does not mean they were random. That is illogical, and akin to saying that because you lack the information/capability to know what happened it must be random. Ignorance is not equivalent with randomness. -Nor of course is ignorance equivalent with design. If we lack the information and the capability, we are in no position to argue one way or the other.-TONY: Imagine that. The designer can MAKE things happen even while allowing the players the free will and agency, within the limitations of the rules and physics of the game, to chose their own path; do so without foreknowledge of the path which they will choose; and he can still know the eventual outcome of the game. Hrmm.. That sounds familiar for some reason..-GEORGE: If I play Snakes and Ladders I know the designer has made it so that the players are likely to get an eventful entertaining game. But I still think the rolls of the dice can properly be said to be random. And I doubt that some transcendental being has bothered to rig the game to give the result he wants the players to have on that occasion for some inscrutable reason!-George's image ties in perfectly with the idea that God (if he exists) created life for his own entertainment, and I think most of us would agree that it's far more entertaining to watch a game without knowing the outcome. The thought is anathema to many religious people, but as a speculation it has just as much “validity” as the speculation that he has a personal interest in us, loves us, and plans a bright future for those who obey the commands of the people who say they know what he wants us to do. (Sorry, Tony!)-Looking back on my own life, I can see a long chain of causes and effects, and some of the most substantial ones are as random as one can imagine. If I hadn't been bitten by a mosquito I would never have met my wife. If a friend of mine hadn't happened to make a casual remark when I was visiting him, I would never have spent 36 years as a university lecturer. On a dreadfully sombre and very recent note, if a friend of mine hadn't been blinded by the sunlight just as he drove round a bend and just as a lorry came thundering in the opposite direction, he would still be alive today.
The role of chance and contingency in life
by David Turell , Wednesday, January 21, 2015, 22:53 (3593 days ago) @ dhw
> dhw: George's image ties in perfectly with the idea that God (if he exists) created life for his own entertainment, and I think most of us would agree that it's far more entertaining to watch a game without knowing the outcome. The thought is anathema to many religious people, but as a speculation it has just as much “validity” as the speculation that he has a personal interest in us, loves us, and plans a bright future for those who obey the commands of the people who say they know what he wants us to do. -Then why speculate? My speculation is concerning how God ran the process of evolution.